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Friday, March 28, 2014

SI.com's 2014 MLB experts' predictions and picks





Boston won its third title in 10 years by defeating the Cardinals in six games in the World Series.


Boston won its third title in 10 years by defeating the Cardinals in six games in the World Series.


Matt Slocum/AP



It's been five months since the Boston Red Sox capped off an improbable run to a World Series title to wrap up the 2013 season. There was perhaps no bigger surprise that season than the Red Sox going from the AL East's worst team in 2012 to the champions of baseball in 2013. Along the way, a number of other teams made surprising playoff runs, including the Pirates, who snapped their long drought of postseason misses, and the Indians. And between Opening Day and the final out of the World Series, there was a thrilling race for AL MVP honors between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout; a duel between Clayton Kershaw and lights-out rookie Jose Fernandez for the NL Cy Young award; and a red-hot run by the Los Angeles Dodgers, sparked by the always entertaining Yasiel Puig.




This season promises to be just as compelling, as parity and competition create a number of intriguing questions. Can the Red Sox repeat as champs? Will last year's runner-up, St. Louis, take home the title? Can Puig and the Dodgers bulldoze their way through the NL for L.A.'s first World Series appearance since 1988? Will the Nationals rebound from last year's disappointing season? Can Trout finally unseat Cabrera as AL MVP, and will Kershaw's reign as NL Cy Young come to an end?




SI.com's experts are here to provide their analysis and predictions for the upcoming season. Check out their picks for the playoffs, MVP award, breakout players, and more.



















































































Season Picks
 














































Tom
Verducci
  East Central West Wild-Cards League Champions World Series
Champion
NL
Yes, again. My pick last year underachieved for three-quarters of the season before posting the best record in baseball down the stretch (26-12). The Nationals have everything you want in a champion: A winnable division, a four-man rotation that can outgun anybody in October (including a Stephen Strasburg with no governors and the best trade acquisition of the winter, Doug Fister), and a deep, versatile offense that should be better if their two best hitters, Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper, stay healthy this year. This is the 90th anniversary of the last World Series title for Washington. No MLB city has been waiting longer.
 














































Albert
Chen
  East Central West Wild-Cards League Champions World Series
Champion
NL
The Nationals are, on paper, more talented and deeper than the 2012 club that won 98 games, with key players on the verge of serious breakout seasons, from MVP candidate Bryce Harper to Rookie of the Year candidate Anthony Rendon. With Doug Fister, the front four in the rotation is the best in baseball; the bullpen could be a weakness, but you can count on general manager Mike Rizzo pulling off an impact deadline deal if needed. In October, it'll be Stephen Strasburg leading the way to the coronation -- something he should have been permitted to do two years ago.
 














































Ben
Reiter
  East Central West Wild-Cards League Champions World Series
Champion
NL
One general manager recently told me that he expects St. Louis to win a strong NL Central by at least 10 games. This is a club without a weakness and with unmatched depth, as it has eight pitchers with upper rotation stuff and an outfield so loaded that Oscar Taveras, the game's consensus third-best prospect, will likely be stuck at Triple A for most of the year. This team will be the majors' first to win 105 games since the Cardinals themselves did it a decade ago. While the playoffs are something of a crapshoot, they're built to prosper there, too.
 














































Jay
Jaffe
  East Central West Wild Cards League Champs World Series
Champion
NL
From here, I see only subtle shifts in the playoff picture from 2013, with the returns of the young and talented Nationals and the renovated (if still flawed) Yankees the biggest changes. While my AL pennant pick is a dart-throw in a field with no clear favorites, I've got no hesitance to tab the Cardinals, who shored up last year's most vulnerable spots with the acquisitions of Jhonny Peralta and Peter Bourjos and have an embarrassment of riches in terms of young talent. It's scary to think they'll get more from Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and perhaps one or two others (Kolten Wong? Oscar Taveras?) than they got last year.
 














































Cliff
Corcoran
  East Central West Wild Cards League Champs World Series
Champion
NL
The Cardinals are the best team in baseball and have depth and flexibility all over the place thanks to the best farm system in the game and expert roster management by general manager John Mozeliak. With all of the young and extremely talented pitchers who broke through for them last year now a year older, wiser and better, and some of the fat trimmed from last year's pennant-winning roster, they look unbeatable going into the season.
 














































Joe
Sheehan
  East Central West Wild Cards League Champs World Series
Champion
NL
Guessing at postseason matchups six months out is just that. Tampa Bay and St. Louis, however, are the best teams in their respective leagues, with the Cardinals -- thanks to their lineup depth, excellent rotation and dominant bullpen -- the best team in baseball. This would be a great matchup between two superior run-prevention teams, won in the end by the club with the better offense.
 
Surprise Team
 




























Verducci
They haven't made the postseason since 1985, so a division title would be a huge surprise. But the Royals did win 86 games last year, they have the most athletic team in the league and they had the AL's top pitching staff last year -- and now they add a full season of hard-throwing Yordano Ventura. Youth is no longer an excuse. Manager Ned Yost has a team that is ready to win.
Chen
No, they're not going to win the NL East. But the Marlins, losers of 100 games a year ago, could make a run at .500 and -- don't laugh -- perhaps even a wild card spot, thanks to their talented young pitching staff (beyond Jose Fernandez, Nate Eovaldi is a serious breakout candidate, Andrew Heaney is a future ace, and the bullpen is loaded with power arms) and an improved offense. The front office might still be dysfunctional, but this club could actually be worth watching in September.
Reiter
The Royals smartly upgraded a team that had its first winning season in a decade with a couple of effective veterans in Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante. They have a core of young talent that looks poised to make the leap together -- particularly Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas. They've got Billy Butler batting cleanup in his age-27 season. They've got a solid rotation behind No. 1 James Shields, including a potential breakout star in the 100-mph-throwing Yordano Ventura, and a bullpen that was last year the best in the AL. In short, they've got all the ingredients to end their streak of seasons without a playoff appearance at a modest 28.
Jaffe
It took them until February to show signs of something besides hibernation, but they did well to snag Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz at discounts. I think there's enough pitching here that they can continue to let Kevin Gausman and the rehabbing Dylan Bundy progress at their own speeds, and while there's concern about how soon Manny Machado will be ready, I'm intrigued by the possibility they could give infield prospect Jonathan Schoop a longer look; he can fill in at the hot corner and eventually force their hand at second base, a spot that's been a perennial weakness.
Corcoran
Yes, they punted first base this offseason, but look at the rest of the lineup. They're strong up the middle on both sides of the ball with Jonathan Lucroy, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez. Khris Davis has done nothing but hit at every level, and full seasons from Ryan Braun and Aramiz Ramirez could give them a huge lift. Add in potential improvement in the rotation behind Kyle Lohse in the form of a potential rebound from Opening Day starter Yovani Gallardo, growth from Wily Peralta and the addition of Matt Garza, which gives the rotation depth, and the Brewers should be back in the playoff hunt this year.
Sheehan
They won't make the postseason or even be that close, but the Marlins, with two superstars in Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez, as well as a deep crop of hard-throwing starters, will push .500 and be as watchable as any team in the majors.
 
 



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