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Saturday, April 5, 2014

Odds To Win The 2014 World Series As Of Right Now: Many Changes After 1 Series

I still don't get why they are the current AL favorite over Detroit.  Despite that fact, Boston won their opening series - while all of the 4 other teams have tied or losing records through their 1st series.  i don't think a slight drop was warranted - especially when you consider only the Tigers and Mariners have a better record than the Red Sox right now.  They are tied with the Indians, Rangers, Astros and White Sox for their 2 - 1 record.

I still don’t get why they are the current AL favorite over Detroit. Despite that fact, Boston won their opening series – while all of the 4 other teams have tied or losing records through their 1st series. i don’t think a slight drop was warranted – especially when you consider only the Tigers and Mariners have a better record than the Red Sox right now. They are tied with the Indians, Rangers, Astros and White Sox for their 2 – 1 record.


Odds To Win The 2014 World Series


1.  LA Dodgers +600


2.  Washington Nationals +750 


3. Boston Red Sox +900 (Down from +850)


I am not sure why this club has moved down as they took 2 out of 3 versus the Orioles, and the Yankees are 1 – 2, while Tampa and Toronto split a series.


T4. St. Louis Cardinals +1000


T4.  Detroit Tigers +1000


Considering they lost the opener, the Rangers have had a pretty good week.  The Angels went 3 - 0, the A's are only 2 - 2, and the Astros can't be counted on to keep replicating their 1st 3 games all year, in winning their series versus the Yankees.  Yes the M's are 3 - 1, but the Rangers also receive Yu Darvish back on Sunday.  The Rangers face the Rays and Red Sox in a 6 game road trip, before coming home for a 9 game homestand, vs the White Sox, Mariners and Astros.  If they can weather the 1st 2 series, they should be floating around the top of the division after 18 games.  Wait for the conclusion of the road trip before placing a bet on them.  If they go 3 - 3 or better, and the club is still at +1400 or more, pounce on the odd.

Considering they lost the opener, the Rangers have had a pretty good week. The Angels went 3 – 0, the A’s are only 2 – 2, and the Astros can’t be counted on to keep replicating their 1st 3 games all year, in winning their series versus the Yankees. Yes the M’s are 3 – 1, but the Rangers also receive Yu Darvish back on Sunday. The Rangers face the Rays and Red Sox in a 6 game road trip, before coming home for a 9 game homestand, vs the White Sox, Mariners and Astros. If they can weather the 1st 2 series, they should be floating around the top of the division after 18 games. Wait for the conclusion of the road trip before placing a bet on them. If they go 3 – 3 or better, and the club is still at +1400 or more, pounce on the odd.


6.  Texas Rangers +1400 (Down From +1200)


This team takes two out of 3 from Philly, sees The Angels go 0 – 3 to start the year, and the A’s 2 – 2 and drop +200, take this as one of the weeks better bets.)


T7. New York Yankees +1600 (Down from +1300)


When you lose 2 out of 3 from Houston, you should drop as a favorite.)


T7 . Tampa Bay Rays +1600 (Up from +1800)


I counted this all along as the Rays were once +2200, then +2000 and +1800.  I still love them at this odd.


T7. Oakland A’s +1600


This is fair value for where this team should be.  Had Jim Johnson not blown 2 games, the team could be 4 – 0.  If you want to bet on this team, do it now.


10. Los Angeles Angels +1800 (Down from +1600)


Being swept by the Mariners should equal a downgrade in rankings.  The Angels must win their weekend series with the Astros


T11. Atlanta Braves +2200 (Down from +1800)


The Tomahawk Choppers win 2 out of 3 versus Milwaukee and drop that much.  I know Washington is 3 – 0, but the new odd is quite intriguing.  Wait until after Atlanta plays 6 out of their next 9 against the Nats before you bet though.


T11 Cincinnati Reds +2200 (Down from +2000)


Cardinals beat them 2 out of 3, and Billy Hamilton does not look that good so far, going hitless.


T11. San Francisco Giants +2200 (Up from +2800)


One of my preseason favorites bet at +2500 for the World Series.  They took 3 out of 4 from Arizona, and Brandon Belt smacked 3 HRs.  Tim Hudson solid as a #3 starter.


T14. Toronto Blue Jays +2500 (Down from +2200)


Splitting a 4 game set at Tropicana Field is decent, having Jose Reyes on the DL is not.


T14 Pittsburgh Pirates +2500


T16. Cleveland Indians +2800  


T16.  Seattle Mariners +2800 


18. Baltimore Orioles +3000 (down from +2200)


Wow.  you lose a series to the World Series Champion Red Sox, and you go from 13th favorite to the 18th favorite?  Manny Machado not being back right now is the only reason I wont bet on this team to do anything in 2014.


The Royals lost two extra inning contests versus the Tigers.  They are still a good team, and should not be the 19th highest odd for the WS title.  Jump on this odd.

The Royals lost two extra inning contests versus the Tigers. They are still a good team, and should not be the 19th highest odd for the WS title. Jump on this odd.


19. Kansas City Royals +3300


No shame in losing to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, and the funny thing is, their Bullpen lost both games.  This is a good odd for KC now.  They are not the 19th best team in the MLB.


T20.   Philadelphia Phillies +5000 (Down from +3300)


The Phightins win a slugfes for game 1, before 2 1 run defeats and they drop the 3rd most odds for the week?


T20.  Arizona Diamondbacks +5000


The Brewers played the Braves tough in a 3 game set this opening week.  They went from +4000 favorites to win the WS to +6000.  This is fair value.

The Brewers played the Braves tough in a 3 game set this opening week. They went from +4000 favorites to win the WS to +6000. This is fair value.


T22. Milwaukee Brewers +6000  (Down from +4000)


I thought they played Atlanta pretty tough in the 3 game set – despite going 1 – 2.  That Matt Garza/Aaron Harang no hitters duel through 6 could have gone to anyone.


T22.   San Diego Padres +6600


T24.   Chicago White Sox +6600 (Down from +6000)


The White Sox go 2 – 1 in their 1st 3 games – and lose their last week odd?


T24. Colorado Rockies +6600


T26.  Chicago Cubs +10000 (down from +6600)


Finally the market corrected the Cubs.


The Mets play a weekend series vs the Reds, before going to ATL/ARI/LAA - and then playing the Cards and Braves at Citi for 7 more.  Hello 5 - 11 next 16 games mark.  No wonder the odds jumped them to +10000

The Mets play a weekend series vs the Reds, before going to ATL/ARI/LAA – and then playing the Cards and Braves at Citi for 7 more. Hello 5 – 11 next 16 games mark. No wonder the odds jumped them to ++0000


T26   New York Mets +10000 (Down from +8000)


A horrendous start to the year.  Do you think the club can still win 90 Sandy Alderson?


T26.   Miami Marlins +10000


29. Minnesota Twins +12500 (Down from +8000)


They had the biggest drop in odds on the board.


30.   Houston Astros +35000


Best Bets on the Board (Value wise)


1.  Detroit +1000


2. Texas +1400


3. Kansas City +3300


4. Milwaukee +6000


T5:  Baltimore +3000


T5: Tampa Bay +1600


T5: Atlanta +2200 (don’t pick for 10 days though)


Worst odds on the board


1. LA Angels +1800


2.  Toronto +2500


3.  Los Angeles Dodgers (love them to win WS, but +600 with Kershaw out and SF off to a good start?)


3. San Diego +6600 They should be duking it out with the Cubs and Mets for worst NL record in 2014.


4.  Boston Red Sox (+900)  They are not so much better than Tampa, that the Rays should be +1600.


5.  I have to go with the Indians at +2800.  I think a regression will still happen in 2014.  Having said that, the website nailed most of the board with proper corrections.  So picking 5 bad bets was fairly hard to do.  Since I said the Tribe would only win 74 – 77 games, I had to stick with my gut.  Nice Start for Cleveland in Oakland though.


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Chuck Booth and Larry Lucchino talk baseball in the RF reserved seats at Fenway

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