On a day when their rivals stole all the headlines, the Boston Red Sox made another one of their patented no-risk, high-reward investments by signing outfielder Grady Sizemore, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.
Source: Red Sox come to terms on major league deal with Grady Sizemore
— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) January 22, 2014
Sizemore has base of $750K with incentives that can push up to $6 million with Red Sox
— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) January 22, 2014
If you look at Boston's current outfield crop, as well as the potential upside in a Sizemore deal, this could be one of the most underrated moves of the offseason. The former Cleveland center fielder also has the ability to be a surprise X-factor with the Red Sox.
I should note that my definition of an X-factor is a surprise player who contributes in a meaningful way, either for an entire season or postseason series. I don't consider a star player, like David Ortiz or Dustin Pedroia, to be an X-factor, because everyone knows that they are going to be great.
To provide context for what I am saying, think of Cody Ross in the 2010 National League Championship Series for San Francisco. He was a journeyman who came out of nowhere to shine on the biggest stage in the sport, hitting three homers and winning MVP of the NLCS against Philadelphia.
That's the kind of player I think Grady Sizemore can be for Boston, assuming the 31-year-old can find a way to make it through the season in one piece. He hasn't played in an MLB game since September 22, 2011 with Cleveland.
In the two-plus years since his last game, Sizemore has undergone surgery on his back and knees. It's unclear where he's at in his latest round of recovery, but Red Sox manager John Farrell spoke to Bradford about the addition of Sizemore and the current plan for the former All-Star.
Farrell said no timetable regarding Sizemore. Not committing to being ready for Opening Day. Going to ease into things but optimistic
— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) January 23, 2014
Even though the picture I have painted sounds bleak, I am going to brighten things up right now.
What makes this a good deal is there is no risk at all. The Red Sox will only have to pay Sizemore $750,000 if he never plays an inning for them. In today’s baseball, that’s the roughly equal to the value of a bag of balls.
He's going to have a ton of incentives in the contract just to get close to the $6 million total value, so the onus is on Sizemore to perform.
The Red Sox don't lose anything if Sizemore doesn't play, or is a flop when he does play, because they are loaded in the outfield. Mike Carp, Jonny Gomes, Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino and Jackie Bradley Jr. are all ready to go when the season starts.
Bradley is the player likely most affected by Sizemore's signing. The 23-year-old prospect is due to take over in center field for the departed Jacoby Ellsbury, as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported in December.
Given Bradley's lack of professional experience, the Red Sox need some insurance behind him in case things don't go as planned.
But even if Sizemore remains healthy, his best immediate use for the Red Sox will be off the bench. He has to prove that he’s capable of playing on consecutive days before discussions being about a starting job.
As far as skills, it's hard to know exactly what Sizemore is still capable of doing. Given all the knee problems he's had in the last four years, it's probably safe to say that speed is no longer a huge part of his game.
That means Sizemore has to hit for power to have any value for the Red Sox in 2014. As hard as it might be to believe given all the time he's missed, I don't think that's going to be a problem. He slugged over .400 in seven of his eight seasons with Cleveland.
When Sizemore was on his last legs with the Indians, he wasn't hitting for average or getting on base, but the power never went away. He slugged a respectable .422 in 268 at-bats with 21 doubles, one triple and 10 home runs during the 2011 season.
Sizemore's isolated power of .198 in 2011 was better than Andrew McCutchen (.190), Joey Votto (.186) and Matt Carpenter (.163) in 2013.
I'm not arguing that Sizemore will be a better hitter or a more valuable player than those three in 2014, but given what we have seen from him in the past, can you say that with 250-300 at-bats he won't get 30-35 extra-base hits?
The Red Sox have almost certainly done their homework on Sizemore. He has been working towards this comeback for two years, even choosing to sit out the 2013 season until he was ready to play again with no restrictions.
Sizemore is in a great spot, joining a team where there won't be any pressure to perform and is capable of bringing him along slowly to ensure he's able to make the most out of whatever baseball skills he has left.
It's a lot to ask at this point, but if Sizemore can stay healthy, he is still young enough to contribute something valuable to an MLB team.
Note: All stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. Video via MLB Advanced Media.
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