The Tigers are my pick of the week for value. They were the AL favorite just two weeks ago outright, before being tied with Boston last week. This odd is favorable for sure. The AL Central provides the Tigers with an easier path to the World Series because of 76 games within the Division. The AL East had 4 teams over 85 wins last year. Baltimore and New York are better than they were in 2013, and Boston plus Tampa should maintain. The AL East has 5 of the top 13 odds for the World Series (5 of the top 8 clips for the AL.) The AL West is also going to beat up each other a little. Take this AL Central team that has appeared in 3 straight League Championships, and has the best Pitching Staff in the American League.
By Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Analyst/Website Owner): Follow @chuckbooth3024
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Well, it is nice to be vindicated on the market again. Just like I said when the Mariners roamed up from +4000 to +2800 after the Cano signing. I told people to pounce on that odd.
Last week, I posted in this column, that your bet of the week for value as the Orioles.
I have also been calling for the Rays to be higher on the oddsmakers list, and while they have passed the Jays finally, how come they are so far behind the Yankees and Red Sox? Market correction is needed there.
For the record, I called the Yankees a great value at +1500 in December, before they signed Masahiro Tanaka. If you have listened at home, this has worked out for you. Don’t bet the, at +1200, tied for the 6th best odd in the AL, there is no value there. Tampa at +1800 is still a better option.
This is a not a slight on the Red Sox at all, but they should not be favored to win the American League right now. Detroit should be that placeholder. I am not sure the Red Sox will even in the AL East. I would go with the Rays or Yankees before them right now. The Rays had one of the best second half records in 2013, and the Yankees are a lot better as well. I am also not sure of the team losing Ellsbury, Drew, Dempster and Saltalamacchia has improved itself with Capuano, Middlebrooks, Pierzynski and the tandem of Sizemore/Bradley JR. as replacements. No doubt they will be one of the better clubs in 2014, just wouldn’t have them listed as the AL favorite.
Yes, I have been wrong too. The Rangers have dipped from +1100 to +1200, since the loss of Matt Harrison for a few weeks.
I said back last fall, the Blue Jays, Angels and Braves were favored too much and now they have all fallen several spots on the favorites list since the start of the winter.
http://www.bet365.com doesn’t project any of those clubs to be in the postseason when the regular season ends.
They project division winners of the Cardinals, Nationals, Dodgers, Tigers, Rangers and Red Sox. I agree with 5 out of those 6 claims. I am surprised to see that Boston is the #1 favorite in the AL now.
The AL East is so strong that they will knock each other down a peg with 380 total division games. That is 190 Losses to be split pretty equally.
Last Year, the AL East was 190 – 190 vs each other (this is standard for all 6 divisions), but were the best Division in baseball against other divisions. Try a record of 243 – 187 (.593) against anybody not residing in the AL Beast.
Odds To Win The 2014 World Series
1. LA Dodgers +700
2. Washington Nationals +800 (Up from +900)
The gamblers like the Nats more and more. The top 3 teams to win the World Series now reside in the NL.
T3. St. Louis Cardinals +1000
T3. Boston Red Sox +1000
5. Detroit Tigers +1100 (Down from +1000)
If you love the Tigers, now is the time to pounce on their odd here. It has plummeted down from +900, and once they win a few games to start the year, this odd will never be as high again.
T6. Texas Rangers +1200
T6. New York Yankees +1200
T8. Oakland A’s +1500
This is because of the jump for the Mariners. All along I think this is a pretty fair evaluation for Oakland now.
T8. Cincinnati Reds +1500
10. Atlanta Braves +1600 (Down from +1400)
This is the oddsmakers thinking that the Nationals are winning the NL East, and that Atlanta won’t survive a Wild card Game with the lack of an ace pitcher.
11. Los Angeles Angels +1700
12. Tampa Bay Rays +1800
T 13. Toronto Blue Jays +2200 (Down From +2000)
The club hasn’t done enough coming off of a 74 win campaign in 2013. This is the second straight week of adding +200 as a longshot. The O’s gain, is the Jays loss.
T 13. Baltimore Orioles +2200 (Up from +2500)
With JImenez and Nelson Cruz signings, the club is no longer forecasted in the Division basement alone. Now there are 5 AL East in the top 13 odds to win the Fall Classic.
T15. Kansas City Royals +2500
T15. San Francisco Giants +2500
T15. Pittsburgh Pirates +2500
T18. Cleveland Indians +2800 (down from +2500)
The Ubaldo JImenez signing created another +300 for the club, because it wasn’t with them
T18. Seattle Mariners +2800
T20. Arizona Diamondbacks +3300
T20. Philadelphia Phillies +3300
22. Milwaukee Brewers +4000 (Down from +3500)
Easy come…easy go.they go back to where they were a few weeks back
23. Chicago White Sox +5000
24. Colorado Rockies +5500
T25. San Diego Padres +6600
T25. Chicago Cubs +6600
27. Minnesota Twins +8000
28 New York Mets +9000 (Down from +8000)
Probably the inactivity to land another players, and that the team is 24th in Team Payroll, with the management not willing to part with more dough is a major factor in gambler’s non confidence.
29. Miami Marlins +10000
30. Houston Astros +25000
The Blue Jays, Pirates and Indians have had pretty bad offseasons so far and it is starting to reflect in the odds. The Indians have dropped to the back 40% of favorites, and the Jays went from +1600 all the way to +2200, tied for fourth with the Baltimore Orioles for highest favorite in the AL East. The Pirates are even a worse odd at +2500, for a team that featured 94 wins last year, while the Indians lost 40% of their Starting Rotation, and are at +2800. At least in the AL Central and NL Central, the Divisional Opponents are not as tough for Cleveland and Pittsburgh. The Jays AL East Rivals feature a combined .565 Win PCTG from last year between BOS/NYY/TB/BAL, and may be even better this campaign.
odds brought to you by www.bet365.com
Please note that it is illegal for US citizens to gamble in most States.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
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Chuck Booth and Larry Lucchino talk baseball in the RF reserved seats at Fenway.
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