I have come onto write an article fresh after talking all morning with people on twitter that have criticized our Rankings system. Then it occurred to me, a lot of the other main baseball websites do a different rankings system for their ratings.
I love ESPN and their baseball coverage, but seriously the Brewers and Braves don’t deserve to be #1 and #2 respectively in the latest week report.
I wish the website would define how they write their rankings. Is it how teams are playing? Maybe I could see that, but there should be a better definition in describing how their system is derived.
At the MLB Reports, there is no confusion at all. We base our 1 – 30 listings on how the teams rate in terms of the World Series – and if that particular has the talent to win the “Fall Classic” for the 2014 campaign.
Now contrary to what one twitter person said, we don’t follow this to the letter for odds to win the World Series.
But yeah, it is part of the equation.
Hunter Stokes, our chief writer, comes from a massive background of oddsmaking like I do. We have a firm grasp on how to rate teams on their standing for that avenue.
We look at things a lot differently then the kind folks pretty much anywhere.
For those people who have been following our ‘Gambling 101′ articles. A huge percent of what we have predicted to go down, has happened in fluctuations for teams.
Watching odds spike up and down for the Division, Pennant and World Series is something we have implemented into our weekly writings. Why? Because when you wish to follow where the truth lies – follow the money.
World Series Odds to win are a great barometer to apply some of your rankings towards each week.
We use these a reference, obviously not copying them pillar to post. Hunter has done a fantastic job of incorporating these articles with the odds set forth by gambling institutions.
To an extent, all of the so-called ‘experts’ of the MLB – are wrong on their predictions a lot of the time. Yes, we are wrong a lot of the time to, and will graciously point out those prognostications that have gone awry.
I love writing and running this website, but if I had the foresight to nail every bet I ever made, I would be residing in Las Vegas (at the MGM Grand) sipping Pina Colada’s – and living it up.
Our site has ramped up our coverage on the 2430 Game MLB Schedule, 289 Games of that being Interleague, 1140 games being played with Divisional opponents versus one another (each team plays 76 games versus their own division) and 1001 games are played against teams that are in the same League but not in the same division.
That is the first thing to look out for. So obviously a team like the Blue Jays is at a mega – disadvantage when they play 76 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Orioles – 4 teams that combined for nearly a .643 win percentage last year versus all teams that weren’t in the AL East.
We have ranked the Tigers higher for the last few years because they play in a Division that has far less talent than any other division. Let’s not forget they have 76 games versus the Royals, Indians, Twins and White Sox.
Detroit has also made 3 straight appearances in the ALCS – and possess Starting Pitchers Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez, and employ 2 time reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera.
The Tigers path of resistance (Strength of Schedule) is the best in baseball.
We also have given the Dodgers a ton of latitude in naming them the top team for back to back weeks. Keep in mind that Hunter also did these standings before games Sunday, where Los Angeles only trailed the Giants by 0.5 Games.
The Dodgers have played in every game but 1 without Clayton Kershaw, and were still 14 – 11 heading into play. Lest we forget this team went through a stretch of play where they went 42 – 8 at one point last year.
Again, with the Padres and D’backs residing in their division, they are 2 teams to beat up on all year. The Rockies are improved, but are not elite, and the Giants are full value for games played, but I would still have to give the edge to LA on this one.
The Braves and Nationals were assessed values of #3 and #4 teams overall. I am sure with the news that Bryce Harper is out on the DL may also influence Hunter’s projections in going forwards.
Again, in the NL East, these two franchises play the Marlins, Phillies and Mets for 57 games apiece. Not one of these clubs won more than 74 games in 2013 – and may not do so before 2014 is said and done either..
So far, those 3 teams do look a little stronger, however Atlanta and Washington have to be considerable favorites based on their records against those squads.
The NL Central leading Brewers have been a great story thus far at 18 – 7. At the time of the article written, we did know that Jean Segura nad Ryan Braun are dealing with injuries, and also have played well.
We did have them at #8 in our picks, which is higher than the 12th best favorite to win the World Series,
I thought Hunter articulated a great point on the Brewers. Braun could be out for the year at any point with that thumb issue he is dealing with, and that Aramis Ramirez has a bum knee.
No one at MLB Reports is discrediting this team for not being significantly better than in 2013 – because they are. Heck, we even gave them the 2nd Best ranking in the Division, and would qualify as the #2 Wild Card with where we slotted them. I think that is more than fair.
With the lack of an ace Pitcher, they would be hard pressed to go on a long playoff drive.
That is the same reason why Atlanta will have a tough time cracking #1 on our Rankings sheet. Last year, we did hail them as #1 on a few weeks – because they lapped the NL East early, and were in a massive position of strength to not miss the postseason – more so than all other clubs – who did not have strangleholds on their Division leads like the Braves..
For the record, http://www.bet365.com has Atlanta listed as the #5 favorite to win the World Series, and even lists Washington and St. Louis slightly ahead of them, despite those two teams trailing in their respective divisions by multiple games.
With the way we dissect our ratings, an AL East team will also have a tough time cracking the top 5, The one reason is that the division looks to be in question for the duration of the whole year, and all 5 teams may be competing for it all campaign.
When you don’t have a cupcake team to play against at all, it dampens how you fare against other divisions that may have a club they thrash on.
Take the A’s and Rangers becoming fat and sassy at the expense of the Houston Astros. This is a 19 game set that could be the difference between these teams winning a postseason berth or not.
Seattle also hasn’t looked great since the 1st week (although they just took 2/3 versus Texas in climbing to 10 – 14.)
A Division that has franchises to ‘speedbag’ on, may be the recipient of the Wild Card positions based on the amount of games you play versus these teams.
Cleveland used this to their advantage last year. Oakland simply owned the Astros in 2013.
Again, that AL East stat with NYY/BOS/BAL/TB all crushing any other team besides their own division may work against them this year. Maybe only the #1 team will make it with the rest of them being outside the playoff bar.
Of the 190 games a division plays one another – the record is automatically 190 – 190 to be divided between those squads. Those 5 teams will split those contests fairly evenly – whereas the Tigers could go .500 against the rest of the pack while winning nearly 50 games versus Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago (AL) and Minnesota.
Starting Pitching, Lineup, Strength of Schedule, Playoff Pedigree and a teams willingness to improve all account for the rankings we set forth each week.
Injuries also play a huge factor in listing the teams 1 – 30.
To be the #1 team you better have the club to win a World Series, be at the top (or right near) the top of your division – and better yet is to have a considerable lead in your division,
A lot of weight carries to whether your team will have to make the Divisional series via a Wild Card Spot. Does the team have an ace to lock down a 1 game playoff?
So the next time someone wants to throw some daggers our way for what we have come up with for the weekly rankings, I can at least point them to this post.
I am not saying people should agree with us on all fronts. Form your own opinions and do your own list, by all means.
Just don’t say we have winged these rankings – and have no business writing our own thoughts down. That is BS.. I just gave you plenty of illustrations why.
Tagged: 2014 world series, al central, AL East, anibal sanchez, Atlanta Braves, Chuck Booth, clayton kershaw, houston astros, hunter stokes, jean segura, justin verlander, la dodgers, max scherzer, miguel cabrera, MLB Interleague, MLB power rankings, nl west, ryan braun
No comments:
Post a Comment