By Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Analyst/Website Owner): Follow @chuckbooth3024 & Jeff Kleiner (Org Depth + Payroll Expert – find his website here) Follow @prosportsroster
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I am not going to beat up the Padres in this article. They have a tough division to contend with and need the new 2016 CBA to provide more of an equal playing field.
Here is some good news, the Padres only be losing 7 guys to Free Agency before the 2015 year, so if the young flock of talent can show some improvement, the future years look good.
Chase Headley, Chris Denorfia, Josh Johnson, Tim Stauffer, Huston Street, Seth Smith and Nick Hundley are up for the open market. Look for the franchise to trade most of these guys near the Trade Deadline.
Headley’s departure will hurt, but they do have Jedd Gyorko to take 3B. Joaquin Benoit can easily assume the role of Closer for Steet.
Seth Smith is a PH/4th OF and his replacement should be okay. Tim Stauffer is a replaceable relief core.
Denorfia is another Outfielder the team cold withstand losing. The club has Will Venable, Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin all for multiple years.
If Johnson pitches well out of the rotation this year he will outprice himself out of SD.
A team 2015 Vesting Option will automatically kick in for next year if Johnson fails to make 7 Game Starts for San Diego, or he may just be adios anyway if he pitchers to well. This is one to watch for sure.
Best case for the Padres to re-sign him is if he has an average season..
If he is a bust, the team would let him go the route of Edinson Volquez this past offseason.
Hundley will be the second option at Catcher to Yasmani Grandal, so therefore look for the brass to turn down his $5 MIL Team Option in 2015, thus making him a Free Agent.
If there were ever a case to shown how small market teams have a tough time competing with the big market teams, the NL West will soon be a test case for it.
The Dodgers are floating in the $230 – $240 MIL range for the next several seasons, and the Giants are hovering around the $150 MIL plateau and rapidly climbing to keep up with Los Angeles.
The D’Backs have broached the $100 MIL barrier, and will need every resource to work out as their core becomes more expensive.
The Rockies might only have a payroll just above San Diego, however they have superstars on their team to draw in fans in Troy Tulowitzki. The fans are still great at attending Coors Field as well.
The small market teams faring well in the last 20 years are the Twins, (2001 – 2009), after several losing seasons (92 – 00).
The Rays (2008 – 2014 version is comprised of a Roster Tree stemming from high draft picks from 1998 – 2007 – when they endured 9 straight losing campaigns, as 71 wins as their watermark for victories in that timespan.
Only the Athletics have bucked the trend (fashioning one of the best top 10 records for the last decade. This has more to do with Billy Beane doing a phenomenal job more than anything.
When you are being trumped bu a few big market clubs in your Division like San Diego is, it will take a lot of high draft picks, and the other clubs to age with the core players.
San Diego can only afford to carry a payroll ranging from $80 – 95 MIL, therefore their young controllable assets better pan out, otherwise it is curtains for competing in this talented Division.
This squad will live and die with the following players: Andrew Cashner, Yonder Alonso, Jedd Gyorko, Everth Cabrera, Cameron Maybin and Eric Stults.
Also guys that are in their system as top prospects: Austin Hedges, Matt Wisler, Max Fried, Hunter Renfroe and Casey Kelly could really help out by seeing their potential come forth to the big club in spades.
At least San Diego doesn’t have much in terms of long – term commitments. Quentin is the highest paid guy at 2 YRs more at $18 MIL with a Mutual Option for 2016.
Maybin is in the 2nd year a 5 season pact that has potentially $29.3 MIL left on it. He will earn $5.1 MIL in 2014, $7.1 MIL in 2016 and $8.1 MIL in 2017 before the team decides on a 2018 Club Option for 2018 worth $9 MIL.
The last of the $20 MIL club is Joaquin Benoit, who inked a 3 YRs contract worth $22 MIL this winter.
Corey Leubke also had his 2nd Tommy John Surgery, effectively causing him to miss the entire 2014 campaign. SD is still on the hook for $3.2 MIL this year – and $5.4 MIL next, although insurance would recoup some of the cash.
Luebke will need to make an incredible comeback in 2015, for this organization to pick up his Team Options in both 2016 and 2017, of $7.5 MIL and $10.0 MIL respectively.
There are a boatload of Arbitration Eligible players in 2015, including Ian Kennedy (3rd and last year before FA), Eric Stults, Everth Cabrera, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Dale Thayer, Yonder Alonso, Kyle Blanks, Alexi Amarista and Joe Wieland.
This is 9 guys all likely to command nice pay hikes. The $28.5 MIL on the books already will be significantly jolted skyward after these guys are dotted on new deals.
The Padres could probably make 1 or 2 Free Agent signings in 2015 that would be noteworthy. Starting Pitching is probably what they would covet the most.
If they do make a trade with Chase Headley, Street and Smith – they should seek more and more hurlers in return. That is the only way to make it today’s world for San Diego.
Contract Outlook From 2014 – 2016
| San Diego Padres Payroll | |||||
| POS | Pitchers | ||||
| AGE | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | ||
| SP1- | Eric Stults | 34 | $2,750,000 | ARB2 | ARB3 |
| SP2- | Ian Kennedy | 29 | $6,100,000 | ARB3 | FA |
| SP3- | Andrew Cashner | 27 | $2,400,000 | ARB2 | ARB3 |
| SP4- | Cory Luebke | 28 | $3,125,000 | $5,375,000 | $7,500,000 |
| SP5- | Jason Marquis | 34 | FA | ||
| SP6- | Josh Johnson | 29 | $8,000,000 | SIGNED | |
| SP7- | Clayton Richard | 30 | FA | ||
| SP8- | Robbie Erlin | 23 | NON-ARB1 | NON-ARB2 | NON-ARB3 |
| SP9- | Burch Smith | 23 | NON-ARB1 | NON-ARB2 | NON-ARB3 |
| SP10- | Casey Kelly | 24 | NON-ARB2 | NON-ARB3 | ARB1 |
| SP11- | Joseph Wieland | 23 | NON-ARB3 | ARB1 | ARB2 |
| SPS- | Tyson Ross | 29 | $1,980,000 | ARB2 | ARB3 |
| RHMR- | Tim Stauffer | 30 | $1,600,000 | FA | |
| LHMR- | Alexander Torres | 26 | NON-ARB1 | NON-ARB2 | NON-ARB3 |
| RHSU- | Dale Thayer | 33 | NON-ARB3 | ARB1 | ARB2 |
| RHSU- | Nick Vincent | 27 | NON-ARB2 | NON-ARB3 | ARB1 |
| LHSU- | |||||
| CL- | Joaquin Benoit | 36 | $6,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 |
| CL- | Huston Street | 30 | $7,000,000 | FA | |
| C- | POSITION PLAYERS | AGE | 2014 SALARY | 2015 SALARY | 2016 SALARY |
| 1B- | Nick Hundley | 30 | $4,000,000 | FA | |
| 2B- | Yonder Alonso | 27 | NON-ARB3 | ARB1 | ARB2 |
| SS- | Jedd Gyorko | 25 | NON-ARB2 | NON-ARB3 | ARB1 |
| 3B- | Everth Cabrera | 27 | $2,450,000 | ARB2 | ARB3 |
| LF- | Chase Headley | 29 | $10,525,000 | FA | |
| CF- | Seth Smith | 31 | $4,500,000 | FA | |
| RF- | Alexi Amarista | 24 | NON-ARB3 | ARB1 | ARB2 |
| Cameron Maybin | 26 | $5,100,000 | $7,100,000 | $8,100,000 | |
| C- | |||||
| C- | Rene Rivera | 30 | NON-ARB3 | ARB1 | ARB2 |
| 1B- | Yasmani Grandal | 25 | NON-ARB2 | NON-ARB3 | ARB1 |
| 3B- | Tommy Medica | 25 | NON-ARB1 | NON-ARB2 | NON-ARB3 |
| UTL- | |||||
| UTL- | |||||
| OF- | |||||
| OF- | Will Venable | 31 | ARB2 | ARB3 | FA |
| OF- | Kyle Blanks | 27 | $987,500 | ARB3 | FA |
| OF- | Carlos Quentin | 31 | $9,500,000 | $8,000,000 | $10,000,000 |
| OF- | Reymond Fuentes | 22 | NON-ARB1 | NON-ARB2 | NON-ARB3 |
| Chris Denorfia | 33 | $2,250,000 | FA | ||
| 2014 payroll | 2015 payroll | 2016 payroll | |||
| Budget Totals | 78269514 | 28477015 | 33602016 |
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Other Authors for this post:
Jeff Kleiner: ”I have been a sports fan since the first Baseball game I went to at Comisky Park in Chicago in 1959, when baseball for me turned from black and white to color.
I have attended or watched thousands of games, always paying attention to statistics, rosters and salaries of all professional sports.
Luckily I had the advantage of watching WGN TV and seeing hundreds of games in the 60′s. Collecting Baseball Cards and then later dealing them gave me an extra sense of the sport, both good and bad.”
For all of your Salaries, Roster and Depth Charts for all 4 Major Sports (entire organization – Minors and Majors) click here or Follow Me on twitter Follow @prosportsroster
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Tagged: 2014 san diego padres payroll, alexi amarista, Andrew Cashner, arizona diamondbacks, austin hedges, billy beane, carlos quentin, colorado rockies, Coors Field, cory luebke, dale thayer, eric stults, everth cabrera, hunter renfoe, huston street, ian kennedy, jedd gyorko, Joaquin Benoit, joe wieland, josh johnson, kyle blanks, la dodgers, mark kotsay, max fried, minnesota twins, nick hundley, nl west, oakland athletics, petco park, san diego padres, sf giants, tampa bay rays, Tim Stauffer, troy tulowitzki, tyson ross, will venable, yasmani grandal, yonder alonso
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