Felix Hernandez has been the face of the Seattle Mariners since 2009 when he won 19 games for the Mariners. He followed up with a CY Young season in 2010. The last 3 years, he has gone 39 – 33, with a lowe 3 ERA, but finished 4th in Cy Young Voting in 2012, and was one of the frontrunners to win the 2013 AL Cy Young – before the team shut him down for the rest of the year in Sept (still finished 8th in Voting). Hernandez sports a 110 – 86 record with a 3.20 ERA for his 9 year career. Expect nearly 16 – 18 wins this year with a near 3 ERA. The Mariners have only had 2 winning seasons out of the time “King Felix has been on the team. A start at Safeco Field for the team by him is worth about 10K fans extra. Photo: Chris Carlson – AP
By Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Analyst/Website Owner): Follow @chuckbooth3024
Follow MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports
A decade of frustration has set in after the clubs best stretch of success proceeded if from the time Ken Griffey Jr. arrived, until longtime MGR. Lou Piniella left the fold in 2003.
That was the last season the Mariners were sniffing around a playoff spot.
Back then, attendance was nearly 40K per game at Safeco, and you see tailgate parties, and the smell of garlic wafted through the surrounding area of the park.
In 2012, the club hit an all time low in attendance for the new stadium, and it wasn’t much better in 2013. Seattle drew just over 20,000 fans per game.
Something had to be done. Other than games that brought tonnes of excitement, and the King’s Court Section for Felix Hernandez home outings, there wasn’t much for the teams fanbase to be happy about with the home team.
The Mariners have one of the gem stadiums in all of baseball right now. It is too bad the team on the field has not been that great – in what has been a brutal decade. When this park opened, the Mariners were drawing over 3 Million Fans a year, the city was nuts over the franchise for the last decade, and the fanbase cheered for their Stars. A multitude of terrible transactions and signings has brought this PAC NW hub down to half of its original attendance since the park opened. If the club didn’t come out for the solely popular Ichiro Suzuki – while he was still in his prime, what makes the club think that Cano being brought in will just revive the buzz around the team past a season if they struggle?
Jack Zduriencik did finalize the Robinson Cano, and it sprung forth a new kind of emotion that hadn’t been seen in the Emerald City for a long time.
The 2004 winter saw the franchise sign Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. While I contend Beltre had an underrated go of it in Seattle, the perception was that he and Sexson were busts for the money.
No hitter wanted to set foot near Seattle for the pitcher friendly park.
But signing the best Free Agent on the market, and a guy who came from the New York Yankees sent the fans into a frenzy.
Instead of capitalizing on the new found momentum, the M’s GM has played kitty bar the door with the owners vault since then.
Sure they signed the hat abuser “Closer” Fernando Rodney to a multi-year deal, but that came after signing and trading for injury prone 1B/OF in Corey Hart and Logan Morrisson.
Wait…wasn’t that the problem in 2013?
Your top 3 offensive players to start the year last campaign, where all 1B/OF/DH. Kendry Morales, Raul Ibanez and Mike Morse to refresh everyone’s memory.
Oh yeah…and Jack Z. traded away a guy who may near .385 OBP – as a Catcher in John Jaso, to acquire 3 months of play for the latter there.
Morales is still a Free Agent, and Ibanez took his 29 HR act of last year to Los Angeles. I don’t blame the team for not signing “Raul so cool.”
But why hell would you not want a guy like Morales?? He hit you 20 HRs and 80 RBI with a high Batting Average. He is probably one of the best 5 Designated Hitters in the game right now.
Enough of the ranting who they don’t have, and who won’t help Cano. Let’s preview who they do have in 2014.
HIsashi Iwakuma is one of the top pitchers in the American League right now. While he did not win the AL Cy Young (2nd in Voting), he had to be in the conversation. The sophomore had a 14 – 6 record, a 1.006 WHIP (2nd in AL) and a 2.66 ERA (3rd in the AL). He will start the year on the DL (thanks to a Spring Training mishap on his finger via the pitching net), but once he returns, the Mariners have one of the best 1 – 2 starting tandems in the MLB,
Before we go into specifics, the injuries to start the year for Hisashi Iwakuma, and Taijuan Walker are devastating – and give the squad a ‘not needed’ excuse for competing in 2013.
James Paxton is the MLB reports pick to win American League Rookie of the Year. A 97 MPH throwing Left Hander, who has great movement, and mound awareness, should have the team’s fans jump for joy.
I am thinking this guy can win about 15 games, have an ERA under 3 – and potentially be the teams #3 Starter by years end.
If he wins that award, he might be one of 2 Starting Mariners pitchers to take home some hardware.
James Paxton looked great in his 4 September starts for the Mariners. In 24 Innings thrown in, he featured an ERA of 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of 0.917. If he can step up as a quality LH Starter in the Rotation for the Mariners, then look the hell out. He can throw in the upper 90′s and has great command for only being 25. He is the MLB Reports pick to win the AL Rookie Of the Year Award. That is not just cause he hails from the same hometown as me either. This guy is a star in the making!
Felix Hernandez is poised to take the bump on Opening Day yet again for Seattle. This guy will turn 28 on Safeco’s home opener on April.8/2014.
This perennial AL Cy Young Contender has thrown over 200+ IP for 6 straight years. He was shutdown in early September as a precaution.
His 1st 5 months had him in contention for the best pitcher in the American League.
He is on a short list of aces in the game that toe the rubber as a Starter.
As listed right now for opening day, because of injury the rotation goes: Hernandez, Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez, crafty veteran Randy Wolf and Roenis Elias.
I might think twice about the Chief “Freddy Garcia” coming back to this team for depth. At least that guy could see double duty as a Bullpen arm.
Ramirez was smoked out of his 1st few starts in 2013, before settling down. His 4.98 ERA in 13 Game Starts is not very impressive at all. He should be relegated to the Bullpen once the team is fully healthy.
Randy Wolf can definitely hang around this team as a #5 guy. He needs to watch hours upon days of Jamie Moyer starts at Safeco Field, to see how old LHP can squirm their way through oppositions lineups at the park with less than perfect stuff.
Jamie Moyer won 2O games with the Mariners into his 40′s as a soft tossing pitcher. That is some video worth watching for Randy Wolf.
At 132 -117, with a 4.20 lifetime ERA, this guy can hold down the fort as long as needed. At the worst, he could take over the Oliver Perez role later in the year out of the pen.
Roenis Elias had a 3.18 ERA in 22 Game Starts for the AA affiliate in Memphis of the Southern League in 2013. I would skip his position in the rotation whenever they have a day off in April.
He will likely go back to the Minors 1st when either Walker or Iwakuma come back.
Iwakuma was on fire last year. The 32 Year Old was an ALL – Star, finished 3rd in both ERA and the AL CY Young Vote, and also placed 19th in the AL MVP Vote.
This comes when you post a 14 – 6 record, an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 1.006 in 219.2 IP worth of work.
Walker, 21, was drafted in the 1st RD in 2010 by the franchise. In 3 games started in 2013, he held a 3.60 ERA. He is expected to be given a Starting spot on the staff when he returns.
The big RHP, was listed as the #8 prospect in the MLB by Baseball America.
The Bullpen struggled mightily in 2014, and has a plethora of candidates to nail down spots in the 2014 Relief Core.
Rodney will be the Closer, despite not having his greatest year in 2013 with Tampa. Moving to the confines of the AL West should help.
Zack Miner was recently signed as a guy that could potentially help Tom Wilhemsen setup Rodney from the right side in the late innings.
Other righties Carson Smith, Dominic Leone could make the club, or one of these guys may, Hector Noesi or Ramon Ramirez.
Blake Beavan will probably be Optioned to Tacoma to start the year, and provides organizational depth at least, but has had less than a stellar Spring Training.
Among the lefties out of the pen are Charlie Furbush and 37 Year Old Joe Beimel will try to eat up some game action for the 1st time since 2011.
Lucas Luetge is also a LHP out the Bullpen.
Perhaps the best arm in the late innings for the Mariners last year was Yoevis Medina. This man lugged 68 IP in 63 Appearances, and had a swift 2.91 ERA for his efforts.
The club turned to him to be the Closer at one point, but he blew 3 out of 4 Save Opportunities.
Danny Farquhar numbers included a decent WHIP of 1.186 last season amidst his 4.20 ERA in 55.2 IP.
Farquhar has good stuff, and doesn’t surrender HRs that often. He only yielded 2 out of that work. His Strikeout Ratio is strong as well when comparing to Walks per 9 (12.8/3.6).
This strong thrower is good for needing that one Strikeout when the bases are jammed up.
With a strong 2012 campaign looking good for the future, Wilhelmsen couldn’t get out of his own way in 2013. He saved 24 out of 29 Save Opportunities, but served up a 4.12 ERA and a 1.322 WHIP. These numbers were a deep regression from 2012, where he featured a 2.50 ERA and WHIP of 1.109.
Tom Wilhemsen’s problems last season stemmed from his free pass rate 5.0 BB/Per 9 IP.
The 30 Year Old also dropped from a 9.9 SO/Per IP in 2012, to a 6.9 SO/Per 9 clip in 2013. Wilhemsen will have to correct his ways quick after a horrid Spring too – otherwise it may be another trip down the I-5 to Tacoma for him.
The Bullpen has much work this year – and final decisions will be made later this week to see which anemic bunch start the year in Seattle.
The Starting Staff just needs to become healthy, log a lot of innings, and keep the ball from the Relief core as long as they can.
I think Hernandez will be his vintage self, Iwakuma will be steady, and Wolf will figure out a way to get it done. This season may boil down to the success of Paxton and Walker (or replacements Ramirez, Brandon Maurer or etc…)
Join us tomorrow for the Mariners State Of The Union Part 2 – The Hitters Tomorrow.
Rodney had 48 Saves, 0.777 WHIP and a 0.60 ERA in 2012, to place 5th in AL Cy Young Voting and was an ALL-Star. 2013 wasn’t as kind (although he did win the WBC) with a 3.34 ERA and a WHIP of 1.335. The Mariners not armed with many better Options, brought in the 37 Year Old, to a 2 YR/$14 MIL deal. Rodney did feature a career best 11.1/SO Per 9 IP rate last year, but he also walked 4.9/Per IP as well. His work may translate better in the AL West, where 2/3rds of his games are in Seattle, Los Angeles and Oakland. The RHP carries a WHIP of 1.358 and a lifetime ERA of 3.70, with the Tigers, Angels and Rays though, so his last year numbers are pretty much par for the course. There could be some long games with Seattle this year.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
For all of the Rosters, Depth Charts, State of the Unions and Salaries Posts that we do, please visit our dedicated page link here.
If you want to listen to the 2014 MLB Preview Show for all predictions, we have it below.
Here is the 2 And A Hook Audio Podcast Presentation Play Button (Running time about 2 hours, Chuck – Booth enters 15 Minutes in, ARI/LAD opening series 15 minute mark. Predictions 16 minute – 112 minute mark.)
Download this podcast to your favorite listening device by clicking here, and looking for the blue download button in the playbox at the http://www.benchwarmers.podomatic.com
A nice thing the Mariners did for me – while I was there for my Record Breaking Streak Chase last year. The M’s front office is classy, is involved heavily with Social Media, while the park is one of the better values of the Major Leagues.
Please e-mail me at: mlbreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. To subscribe to our website and have the Daily Reports sent directly to your inbox, click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Follow @mlbreports
Like us on Facebook here
Tagged: 2014 AL Rookie Of the Year predictions, 2014 Mariners Bullpen, 2014 Mariners Starting Rotation, adrian beltre, AL West, Angels Stadium, baseball america, Blake Beavan, brandon maurer, Carson Smith, carter capps, charlie furbush, corey hart, danny farquhar, detroit tigers, domonic leone, Erasmo Ramirez, felix hernandez, fernando rodney, freddy garcia, hector noesi, hisashi iwakuma, ichiro suzuki, Jack Zduriencik, james paxton, joe beimel, john jaso, ken griffey jr, kendrys morales, logan morrison, lou piniella, lucas luetge, memphis southern league AA, Mike Morse, o.co coliseum, oakland athletics, oliver perez, ramon ramirez, randy wolf, raul ibanez, richie sexson, robinson cano, Roenis Elias, safeco field, seattle mariners, taijuan walker, tampa bay rays, tom wilhelmsen, yoervis medina, Zach Miner
No comments:
Post a Comment